jump to navigation

Today is Yesterday’s Tomorrow March 14, 2018

Posted by Dr. Robert Owens in Politics, Politiocal Philosophy.
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
1 comment so far

Science fiction has predicted many of today’s realities from cell phones to tablets.  Many things that are today part of History like walking on the moon, organ transplants, and space stations were once flights of fancy.

Futurists build current events on a foundation of History to provide a launching pad for visions of what is to come.  One of the most widely recognized Futurists is Alvin Toffler whose seminal works include Future Shock and The Third Wave.  He is also the one who told us, “Change is not merely necessary to life – it is life.”

Have you ever heard of Ray Kurzweil?

If you haven’t you are about to.

The Wall Street Journal has described Kurzweil as “the restless genius.”  Forbes calls him “the ultimate thinking machine.”  He has been ranked by Inc. Magazine as #8 among entrepreneurs in the United States  He has also been called “the rightful heir to Thomas Edison,” while according to PBS he is one of 16 “revolutionaries who made America.”

His inventions are breathtaking and they impact our lives on a daily basis.  These inventions include the first CCD flat-bed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.

Here is my question for today “Is Ray Kurzweil a futurist?”

Today, many websites attribute Mr. Kurzweil with accurate predictions about where the world will be tomorrow.  In his latest book, The Singularity is Near he describes the singularity as, a reference to the theoretical limitlessness of exponential expansion) that will see the merging of our biology with the staggering achievements of “GNR” (genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics) to create a species of unrecognizably high intelligence, durability, comprehension, memory and so on.  This is a bold prediction; however, bold predictions do not a Futurist make.

There is a fundamental difference between someone who is a professional writer and observer of humanity such as Toffler and someone who is a technological genius with almost unlimited resources who is actively working to make his predictions reality.  Toffler reads studies and interviews on his way to predictions of where society and technologies will go next.  Kurzweil traded in his massive private business built upon his inventions to become Google’s Director of Engineering whose sole job is to make the company’s computers smarter than humans.  He is working every day to improve artificial intelligence and then wed that to cutting edge robotics and human interface to produce the very singularity he is predicting.

Reaching back to the science fiction genre which I referenced earlier we are looking at the rise of the machines, the coming of the cylons, skynet, and the matrix.  These of course are all fiction; however, the reality we face brings this question to my mind, “Once we design and build machines that are smarter than we are and they design and build machines that are smarter than they are what do they need us for?”

The projected development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) foresees a time when machines not only rival but surpass human capabilities.  Once this happens will we know when these super intelligent machines cross the threshold from hyper abilities to self-awareness?  These scenarios are troubling, even terrifying yet most people would dismiss them as the science fiction they mirror.  There is another aspect of this technological revolution that is not quite as far-fetched and not quite as unbelievable: automation.

We have lived with automation all of our lives.  People have been displaced by innovation since the Sumerian water wheel took the place of people with buckets bringing water from rivers into their fields.  I can remember people telling me in the 1970s, “I’m a keypunch operator, I’ll always have a job.”  Today machinists, tool and dye makers, auto workers, and many people have been replaced by machines.  Tomorrow white collar workers will face the same fate as so many of their blue collar brethren.  Why do we need accountants when machines can fill in the same programs they use today to figure taxes and current accounts?  Who needs teachers when lectures can be delivered by speech technology, questions answered by Watson type question answers, and tests grade themselves?

Look to Futurists like Toffler who are predicting where we are headed and look to inventors like Kurzweil who are telegraphing where they are headed and a collage of futures points to the tomorrow today will become.

It is my contention that we as a people, as a society, and as a civilization need to address this soon approaching brave new world.  When I speak to people about these coming changes the almost universal reaction is, “Not in my lifetime.”  I believe this is a combination of wishful thinking, hiding our heads in the sand, and having no idea what is going on around us.

This is a social dislocation approaching at speeds unforeseen.  I don’t believe these changes are decades away.  I believe within a decade they will be upon us.  Large percentages of blue and white collar workers will be displaced.  Machines will take the place of humans in many areas and humans will not be able to compete with them.  If we allow this to come upon us with no preparation we will be swamped by the rising tide of change and drowned in the tsunami of innovation.

Change is accelerating as the interconnectedness of communication accelerates the cross-polarization of ideas.  After tens of thousands of years the use of the wheel had not spread all the way around the world.  Today something is invented in America this morning, improved in India this afternoon, and spawning new ideas tomorrow in China.  We cannot contain the explosion of technology because someone somewhere will always seek to move beyond the known to the unknown.   No matter what glories we have beheld yesterday tomorrow is coming whether today is ready or not.

Long ago Toffler told us, “Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.”  He also predicted and predated Kurzweil’s Singularity when he said, “The next major explosion is going to be when genetics and computers come together. I’m talking about an organic computer – about biological substances that can function like a semiconductor.”

How long will it before our cars drive themselves, 3-D printers create human organs, and the government has the ability to monitor everyone at once?  How long will it be before you cannot tell the difference between speaking to a computer on the phone and speaking to a human?

Failure to plan is planning to fail.  If we as a society do not stop living in yesterday and face up to the challenges of today we will sacrifice our future.

And always remember, it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

Dr. Owens teaches History, Political Science, and Religion.  He is the Historian of the Future @ http://drrobertowens.com © 2018 Contact Dr. Owens drrobertowens@hotmail.com  Follow Dr. Robert Owens on Facebook or Twitter @ Drrobertowens / Edited by Dr. Rosalie Owens

 

 

 

 

Don’t Worry Be Happy September 4, 2014

Posted by Dr. Robert Owens in Politics, Politiocal Philosophy.
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,
2 comments

No one gets to live in the world they grew up in, it moves too fast.

It wasn’t always like this.  My father grew up plowing with mules as had his father and his father and his father back and back into the mist of time.  Things changed slowly until the machine age.  Then with the development of the steam engine, the assembly line, and mechanization things started to speed up.  Today we are in the first throws of the Second Machine Age, and things are beginning to travel faster than we can assimilate.

The renowned futurist Alvin Toffler first called it Future Shock.  Then he called it The Third Wave.  Then came Powershift, War and Antiwar, and finally Creating a New Civilization.

What it all comes down to is technology is moving at an exponential rate.  It is accelerating faster than we can adapt to and therefore there are social and cultural dislocations on the horizon.  One good way to visualize exponential growth is to remember the story of the man who invented chess.

Hundreds and hundreds of years ago there was a King in India who loved to play games. But he had gotten bored of the games that were present at the time and wanted a new game that was much more challenging. He commissioned a poor mathematician who lived in his kingdom to come up with a new game. After months of struggling with all kinds of ideas the mathematician came up with the game of Chaturanga (Chess).

The game had two armies each lead by a King who commanded the army to defeat the other by capturing the enemy King. It was played on a simple 8×8 square board. The King loved this game so much that he offered to give the poor mathematician anything he wished for. “I would like one grain of rice for the first square of the board, two grains for the second, four grains for the third and so on doubled for each of the 64 squares of the game board” said the mathematician. “Is that all?” asked the King, “Why don’t you ask for gold or silver coins instead of rice grains.” “The rice should be sufficient for me.” replied the mathematician. The King ordered his staff to lay down the grains of rice and soon learned that all the wealth in his kingdom would not be enough to buy the amount of rice needed on the 64th square. In fact the whole kingdom’s supply of rice was exhausted before the 30th square was reached. “You have provided me with such a great game and yet I cannot fulfill your simple wish. You are indeed a genius.” said the King and offered to make the mathematician his top advisor instead.

We can see what a great example this is as a lesson in exponential growth when we reflect on the fact that the chess board has 64 squares and if you put just one grain on the first and double up on the next and so on, you will reach an enormous amount of grain.

1 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2  If you work this out you get an incredible amount of grain something like this: 18.446.744.073.709.551.615 around 18.446.744 Trillions of wheat grains.

This is where Moore’s Law begins to impact our lives.  Moore’s Law is a computing term which originated around 1970 which states that processor speeds, or overall processing power for computers will double every two years.  That is exponential growth.  It began very slowly with computers the size of small buildings in climate controlled rooms clean manned by teams of scientist and mathematicians.  Today five year-old children routinely play with games having more computing power that NASA had to get to the Moon.  Our cell phones were invented by Martin Cooper who was trying to bring the Star Trek communicators to life.  Today our smartphones are computers that have more power than supercomputers of just a few years ago.  It helps to remember that the Star Trek communicators were audio only.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is on the horizon and humanoid robots with the mental agility of Watson and memories the size of Google will soon be walking among us.  Scientists are already using Cochlear implants to bring hearing to the deaf.  Using them to increase memory, intelligence and control machines by thought is just around the corner as we race to what Ray Kurzweil calls The Singularity.  This will be a time when as Kurzweil puts it, “the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our creations.”

What does all this mean?  Do we redefine life from something like, “the condition that distinguishes animals and plants from inorganic matter, including the capacity for growth, reproduction, functional activity, and continual change preceding death.” to sentient to include AI?

Do we become cyborgs as our machines become alive?  Are we close to becoming gods who create life and virtual worlds?

While all of this technology is amazing and wondering about it and its future impact is entertaining it all reminds me of the story of the scientist who told God, “You’re not so much. We have now mastered the techniques for creating life in the laboratory.”

God answered, “Isn’t that interesting.”

Feeling as if God had taken his brazen assertion lightly the scientist said, “I challenge you to a contest.  Let’s just see who can create life the fastest.”

God answered “All right let’s go.”  With that God reached down and picked up some mud and began fashioning it into a man.  The scientist filled with pride took his test tubes and started pouring his potions back and forth when God looked at him and said, “Hey!  Get your own mud!”

Man proposes and God disposes.  We think we are on the verge of taking the place of God in our own evolution.  Many live as if all of this here is all that there is anywhere.

Yet the unanswered questions outweigh the answers.  There are two things: Dark Matter and Dark Energy that scientists tell us makes up the vast majority of everything yet is un-seeable and unknowable.  The Big Bang is now accepted as fact by all scientists yet none can tell us what was before the Big bang or how the Big Bang could have banged.

Faith has the answers.  Dark Energy and Dark Matter are the power of God and the spiritual world.  One upholds us and one surrounds us.  And as far as the Big bang goes, in the beginning God said, “Let there be.”

If the mad rush towards the future leaves you shocked, if the idea of machines that are smarter than humans or of humans that are as smart as machines leaves you turned off instead of turned on don’t worry be happy.  There is joy unspeakable and a life filled with glory right at your fingertips.  Accept Jesus as your Savior, turn from the world and embrace the all-encompassing reality of a spiritual life and find the peace you have always longed for.

Even the godless Communists turned to God when they were on the ropes. Don’t wait for the bell to ring before you surrender and win.  Jesus is the Rock that doesn’t roll and the shelter in the face of the storm.

We are standing on the edge of the abyss and the bell will toll soon.  When we wonder for whom the bell tolls let’s rejoice together as children of God united in the Holy Spirit through faith in our risen Savior Jesus Christ.   For if you confess with your mouth the Lord Jesus and believe in your heart that God has raised Him from the dead, you will be saved.   For with the heart one believes unto righteousness, and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.

Dr. Owens teaches History, Political Science, and Religion. He is the Historian of the Future @ http://drrobertowens.com © 2014 Contact Dr. Owens drrobertowens@hotmail.com Follow Dr. Robert Owens on Facebook or Twitter @ Drrobertowens / Edited by Dr. Rosalie Owens